Just eight weeks ago when Morgan Rogers stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, looking confused while the Villa manager berated him over missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or a cause for the team's more general malaise.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, though, the touchline reaction was entirely much more joyous. After Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, the boss discarded his coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to a tenth straight victory , having failed to win their initial half-dozen matches, are somehow just three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Title Contenders?
It remains an exceptionally difficult question to address. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, their performances haven't been completely commanding this season, while the wins have stacked up.
Per statistical analysis, in only two games has the team posted an expected goals figure notably superior than their opponents. For a side who have just won a ten-match winning streak, Villa appear strangely fragile – yet at the moment the fine lines are falling their way.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with an opponent and wait for their star man to save the day with some precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and it happened versus the Red Devils.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. For his second proved to be a slightly less clean iteration of the opener as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Is It Sustainable?
Common sense dictates no. During the latest victory, Manchester United had a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. They have allowed goals in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent Villa will encounter over the coming weeks. Their key man, almost certainly, cannot maintain drilling the ball past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward may begin to scoring again.
- The winger may rediscover the force he resembled during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are due to return from injury, fortifying a sometimes shaky backline.
Perhaps there is in that the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, nobody expected this. Few believed the team would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And without a doubt back in October, nobody thought the midfielder by the end of the year would be spearheading a title charge while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run should be enjoyed exactly since it seems so surreal. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End when the game ended orchestrating the applause, it was clear to be thoroughly enjoying it. A feeling he has rightly earned. These spells are rare in football and ought to be celebrated.
